The Recent escalation in the Middle-East seems to suggest a Russo-Iranian interest in turning Syria into an air-defense bunker, thus seeking a military conflict with Israel as part of the greater Iranian agenda in the Levant, while NATO & GCC states prepare their next move in the Syrian theater of war.
Several alarming factors have come in to play recently:
1. The Syrian internal-war draws towards a close in a couple of months time, with only its northern region of Aleppo, which is of least importance to the Assad regime, left for the final overtake by the regime’s military. This is thus the last opportunity for developing the conflict for which ever purpose.
2. There’s a new President in Iran named Rouhani, who needs to protect and develop his country’s regional interests, involving defense and prosperity.
The defense aspect
This aspect requires turning Syria in to an air-defense fortress like northern France was under the German occupation during 1941-1944, when some 40,000 heavy bombers of Anglo-America were shot down by means of radar-guided cannons. In present day terms it means a modern Russian coverage of S-300 and even the recently hinted S-400, aka “unprecedented weapon systems in the middle-east”. This comes on top of smaller mobile systems of several layers and alongside modernizing the interceptor jets from Mig-29 to Mig-35 grade
The Economic aspect
This aspect requires subjugating the petroleum-rich northern Iraq to Iran by means of clutching it between an Iranian control of Northern-Syria on its western border and between Iran itself on its eastern border. In order to allow Iran to overtake northern Syria, i.e. invade it militarily with great force and without wide-spread international utter condemnation, Iran would seek supportive circumstances like helping out Assad’s regime during the war he and his Lebanese neighbor Hezbollah will be waging on Israel. This Iranian presence would be then compounded by means of Russian full-scale modern air-defenses, which on that opportunity shall become at long last brought in to the Iranian arsenal, thus bypassing all western attempts to contain the Iranian military buildup by means of soft measures.
Israeli General Yadlin, a former Air-force Chief and current head of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), admitted Iran is capable of assembling a nuclear bomb [Link 1] [Link 2] thus has crossed Israel’s respective red-line, set quite recently by Netanyahu at the UN convention.
Russia is reported all of a sudden to have withdrawn “all” its military and civilian presence inside Syria [see this report &video]. This statement is not to be believed in its literal form and rather repeats a typical Soviet immediate readiness for war. On previous occasions this statement was made by Moscow, it was found after the war that the Soviet presence and participation at all levels and aspects of the war was immense.5. Gaza has recently restarted its artillery bombardment of Israeli cities, following a 7 months long recession, ever since operation ‘Pillar of defense’ ended. This belongs in the context of The Artillery Ring we have already discussed following that quasi-operation, on which we reported.
A New Strategic Order
Iran’s capability to of assembling a nuclear bomb is not just a matter of ready sub-systems, but also of final integration-testing, which is quite likely already accomplished within context of the several North-Korea nuclear explosion tests published last year and even earlier that that, see our article on this subject: North Korea detonates Obama’s Iran policy. This means Israel has already lost its major qualitative advantage and deterrent vs. large scale enemy attacks, which was its nuclear capacity which till last year was unmatched by its enemies.In October 1973 the USSR solved this imbalance by means of deploying its own nuclear scuds in Egypt and aiming them at Tel-Aviv. This nuclear balance forced the world powers to seek an immediate cease of hostilities. This time round it may not happen since Putin is ‘all in’ on defending Russia’s southern flank from the west, especially following his successful summer 2008 Georgian campaign which was followed and complemented by deterring the US Navy from invading the black sea. Putin feels safe with Obama’s all-passive agenda of withdrawals and extended welfare, which is further anesthetized by means of the financial crisis.A large scale military crisis in the middle east, especially a direct one between nuclear powers, means surging Petroleum prices, which thus benefit the petroleum producers, of which Iran, Russia and the USA are major members.
The USA is deployed in northern Jordan, perhaps in order to attempt an armored maneuver at the eastern flank of Damascus, which is far less protected than its western flanks have been vs. Israel for decades now.
Israel has concluded a series of large scale exercises, both at the front and in its cities in preparation for large scale bombardments of its cities by many large long-range enemy rockets from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, including Chemical and conventional weapons alike. Israel may not be able this time round to use nuclear deterrence since Iran is now nuclear too. This means the Israeli army will be forced to fight conventionally till is enemies are dust. This awareness is evident from a recent statement of the Israeli government: “Iran eyes 30 nuclear bombs a year“.